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I can see it getting worse for ADSK, a lot worse. They are not positioned for cloud nor mobile. The ‘re-engineering’ costs and time, of current applications, to even approach what competitors both new and old have, will take a massive toll.
The M&E is against cloud, not wanting to risk their ip. The EU (Germany) insists on heavy duty regulations being in place before cloud is allowed.
Socialcam was a overvalued purchase, as its value was already on the decline, and its competitors are increasing.
No, I’m not bullish on ADSK, I see a hard road ahead, with little or no guarantees that they can make it, nor that any of the acq’s will bear fruit…Soon
I agree with your take on ‘blamed the shifting for poor results since’, I believe this is going to be a recurring theme during these calls.
As of this quarter Autodesk no longer shares the number of its users on subscription, this is a great cause for concern for investors. Hard data being capped is NOT what i want to hear.
Given all of the above I think a low 20’s high teens is about where it should be, with all the unresolved issues that surround it. At this point in time, valuing it at anything more is a very risky business.
Maybe its also because I cant see ADSK surviving in a fast and ever increasing rapid deployment to market, it never has been that, I doubt if the culture can survive or manage the change. It’s starting to feel like a 4pm dinosaur.
They probably aren’t releasing subscription user numbers because they plan to increase subscription costs and shave a good chunk off of that current value.
Of course they’ll increase subscription costs, that’s a given.
The cause for concern is NOT giving those numbers to the shareholders.
I know the article says it’s a point of speculation.
My speculation is WHEN the price hike hits, ADSK do not want shareholders knowing how many ABANDONED ADSK altogether.
That’s why I say, until the whole ‘cloud’ story is completed and people can work that way, the stock is way overppriced.
There is significant work ADSK have to get real busy with and the 7% may have helped in getting there.
I don’t see it getting done in 2-3 years, across most or all product lines.
Realistically, it’ll be at least double that time frame, including resolving EU legal regulations (see Facebook Germany), until then my recommend has to be neutral-sell.
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